Bayesian Belief Networks



Planning improvements in natural resources management: Guidelines for using Bayesian networks to support the planning and management of development programmes in the water sector and beyond Sustainable water resource development needs an 'integrated' approach, which recognises that management must seek to meet multiple objectives through a variety of means, and must link different perspectives on the environment: Environmental Economic Social Political Cultural The challenge is to find a practical way of linking these different perspectives so that we can think of the environment as a whole. Once this is done the best means of meeting all the objectives can be seen.
A novel methodology has been developed to meet this challenge, using systems known as Bayesian networks. This technique exploits a type of decision support system used successfully for many years in fields such as medicine and artificial intelligence. Management strategies only succeed where they have been designed with people in mind, so the decision support system must be developed with help from the people who live and work locally (the 'stakeholders'). Bayesian networks help to encourage stakeholders to participate in the planning process. The guidelines document and the associated files can be downloaded using the links below:
CPT calculator, a computer program to help generate conditional probability tables according to the method described in Appendix 2 (a zipped archive of about 1.5 MB size). A demonstration version of Hugin, a commercially available software package for the construction and analysis of Bayesian networks - an executable (.exe) file of about 3 MB size. A demonstration version of Netica, also a commercially available software package for the construction and analysis of Bayesian networks- an executable (.exe) file of about 700 KB size. An example Bayesian network, to be run in Netica (About 70 KB. Right click and save to prevent the web browser from opening the file). An electronic copy of the entire guidelines text in portable document format (pdf) about 3 MB in size.

The work described above was carried out as part of a project "Integrated Planning and Management of Water Resources". Managed by Jeremy Cain from CEH Wallingford and funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) - Project Number R7137.